Should we buy undervalued or overvalued stocks?
Generally, undervalued shares are favored over overvalued ones, as the investors buy low and sell high. If the company is performing well, it can give promising returns. Buying an overvalued share doesn't have this advantage, as the price returns to its intrinsic value, which is lower.
When a stock is overvalued, it presents an opportunity to go “short” by selling its shares. When a stock is undervalued, it presents an opportunity to go “long” by buying its shares. Hedge funds and accredited investors sometimes use a combination of short and long positions to play under/overvalued stocks.
Investors often seek out undervalued stocks as a strategy to capitalize on potential opportunities in the market. These stocks typically trade at prices lower than their intrinsic value, presenting a buying opportunity for those who believe the market has overlooked their true worth.
In short – if a stock is overvalued, you're going to be overpaying if you decide to buy it – and that's something you always want to avoid.
Investors use the intrinsic value to judge whether a stock is undervalued, overvalued, or priced fairly in the market. If a stock's price is lower than its intrinsic value, it may be considered undervalued, suggesting it's a good buy because it has the potential to rise in the future.
If investors purchase overvalued stocks at inflated prices, they will likely experience significant losses when the price eventually corrects its intrinsic value. This can cause long-term damage to an investor's portfolio and retirement savings.
What happens when a stock is undervalued? Ideally, it's more likely to experience future growth, which could mean capital gains for investors depending on their individual cost basis (or buying price). When a reliable analyst suggests a stock may be undervalued, their opinion could be worth listening to.
Margin of safety: By investing in undervalued stocks, value investors aim to create a margin of safety that minimizes the risk of capital loss while maximizing the potential for gains.
Company/Ticker | Price/Fair Value | Fair Value Uncertainty |
---|---|---|
Cognizant Technology Solutions CTSH | 0.77 | Medium |
Adobe ADBE | 0.83 | High |
STMicroelectronics STM | 0.65 | High |
Company | P/E |
---|---|
Devon Energy Corp. | 9.05 |
Marathon Petroleum Corp | 9.14 |
Charter Communications Inc. | 9.18 |
Altria Group Inc. | 9.23 |
Why do people buy overvalued stocks?
A company is considered overvalued if it trades at a rate that is unjustifiably and significantly in excess of its peers. Overvalued stocks are sought by investors looking to short positions and capitalize on anticipated price declines.
Symbol | RSI (14) | Price |
---|---|---|
LABP D | 95.58 | 21.49 USD |
VVPR D | 93.99 | 6.41 USD |
ALCC D | 92.61 | 12.87 USD |
ABIO D | 92.56 | 3.25 USD |
The "Buffett Indicator" compares the stock market's total value to the overall size of the economy. Buffett has warned that buying stocks at a reading near 200% is "playing with fire."
- ITC Ltd. ...
- Asian Paints Ltd. ...
- Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. ...
- Avenue Supermarts Ltd. ...
- Coal India Ltd. ...
- Varun Beverages Ltd. ...
- Eicher Motors Ltd. ...
- Bharat Electronics Ltd.
For April 2024, the most undervalued stocks—those with the lowest price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for each sector—include energy transportation services company Toro Corp., condominium and homeowner insurance company American Coastal Insurance Corp., cinema advertising firm National CineMedia Inc., and citrus ...
For example, value stocks tend to outperform during bear markets and economic recessions, while growth stocks tend to excel during bull markets or periods of economic expansion. This factor should, therefore, be taken into account by shorter-term investors or those seeking to time the markets.
Amazon's performance remains strong, with robust earnings and reasonable valuation metrics suggesting the stock is not overvalued.
From a profit perspective, Costco stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47. That valuation is double the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500, which currently sits at 23. It essentially means investors think Costco is worth buying at twice the price of an average stock.
Disadvantages of Overvalued Shares
Being caught in a value trap, by which an investor might incur considerable losses. The requirement of market proficiency to determine whether a stock is overvalued or not.
Price to Earnings Ratio
PE Ratio is one of the metrics used to identify undervalued stocks. The PE ratio compares the current market value of a stock with its earnings per share. Typically, undervalued stocks will have a low PE ratio. Remember that the standard PE ratio differs from industry to industry.
What are signs of an undervalued stock?
Some traders consider stock to be undervalued if the earnings yield is higher than the average interest rate the US government pays when borrowing money (known as the treasury yield). Earnings yield example: ABC has EPS of $10 and the share price is $50. The earnings yield will be equal to 20% ($10/$50).
As far as Nifty is concerned, it has traded in a PE range of 10 to 30 historically. Average PE of Nifty in the last 20 years was around 20.* So PEs below 20 may provide good investment opportunities; lower the PE below 20, more attractive the investment potential.
One of Benjamin Graham's disciples was Warren Buffett, the most famous value investor of all time. Based on Graham's teachings, Buffett seeks out companies that are undervalued in the market but have solid business plans and can develop in the long run.
The price to earnings (P/E) ratio is possibly the most scrutinized of all the ratios. If sudden increases in a stock's price are the sizzle, then the P/E ratio is the steak. A stock can go up in value without significant earnings increases, but the P/E ratio is what decides if it can stay up.
- Pfizer PFE.
- Polaris PII.
- Campbell Soup CPB.
- Comcast CMCSA.
- Gilead Sciences GILD.
- Medtronic MDT.
- RTX RTX.
- U.S. Bancorp USB.